Friday, 28 February 2020

2019 NASCAR at Bristol odds, picks: Proven model says Chase Elliott surprises at Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race – CBS Sports

2019 NASCAR at Bristol odds, picks: Proven model says Chase Elliott surprises at Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race – CBS Sports
15 Aug

Bristol Motor Speedway is one of the most iconic venues in NASCAR. On Saturday night at 7:30 p.m. ET, the Monster Energy Cup Series will unfold under the lights on the Tennessee-Virginia border at the 2019 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race. With steep banking to slingshot cars around its tight corners and one of the most unique pit-road setups in all of NASCAR, Bristol always provides plenty of excitement. A look back at the history of winners at the 0.533-mile oval shows this is also a proving ground for top drivers. Kyle Busch has a staggering eight wins at Bristol Motor Speedway and he’s the 5-2 favorite in the latest 2019 NASCAR at Bristol odds to begin the week. His older brother, Kurt Busch, has six wins of his own at the track and he’s at 20-1 in the latest 2019 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race odds. Before you make your 2019 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race picks, be sure to see the NASCAR at Bristol predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Developed by DFS pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track history and recent results into account.

The model is off to an extremely strong start in NASCAR this year. It correctly predicted Martin Truex Jr.’s victory at the Toyota/Save Mart 350. It also called Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin a top-four contender from the start. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers at the Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano in its projected top five, and then hit nine of the top 10 drivers last week at the Go Bowling at The Glen. Additionally, it had Coca-Cola 600 winner Martin Truex Jr. in its top two and then nailed Kyle Busch’s huge win in the first race at Pocono.

It also made some huge calls last year, including correctly projecting wins for Kyle Busch at Chicago and Martin Truex Jr. at Sonoma. It also nailed three of the top four finishers at Michigan and two of the top four at the Daytona 500. Anybody who has followed its picks is way up.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events at venues like Bristol Motor Speedway are in his blood. Now, his model simulated NASCAR at Bristol 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For NASCAR at Bristol 2019, we can tell you the model is high on Chase Elliott, who makes a strong run at the checkered flag despite going off as a long shot at 20-1 odds. Elliott won two weeks ago at Watkins Glen and finished ninth at Michigan last Sunday to jump back into seventh in the standings after a rough seven-week stretch in which he failed to notch a single top-10.

Now, Elliott will look to avenge a disappointing 11th place finish after winning the pole at Bristol for the 2019 Food City 500 earlier in the season. He finished third in the night race a season ago and has led a total of 150 laps in his last two starts at Bristol. Look for Elliott to take advantage of his speedy NAPA Auto Parts Chevrolet from Hendrick Motorsports and surge toward the front on Saturday.

And a massive shocker: Kyle Larson, one of the top Vegas favorites at 8-1, barely cracks the top 10. There are far better values in a loaded 2019 NASCAR at Bristol Night Race lineup.

Larson hasn’t won since the 2017 season when he took four checkered flags and he’s had a rough 2019, with just 10 top-10 finishes in 23 starts. He has netted three consecutive top-10 finishes to get back up to 13th in the standings after dropping as low as 21st when he crashed at Talladega back in April. However, Larson finished 19th at the Food City 500 in Bristol Motor Speedway and was 19th or worse in four of his last eight starts there.

The model is also targeting two other drivers with NASCAR at Bristol odds of 20-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these long shots could hit it big.

So who wins the 2019 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2019 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race leaderboard, all from the model that has crushed its NASCAR picks this season

Kyle Busch 5-2
Kevin Harvick 7-1
Joey Logano 7-1
Martin Truex Jr. 8-1
Kyle Larson 8-1
Denny Hamlin 12-1
Brad Keselowski 12-1
Ryan Blaney 18-1
Erik Jones 20-1
Chase Elliott 20-1
Kurt Busch 20-1
Clint Bowyer 20-1
Aric Almirola 30-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 30-1
Jimmie Johnson 40-1
Daniel Suarez 40-1
Alex Bowman 40-1
Wiliam Byron 50-1



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