Sunday, 26 January 2020

2019 NASCAR at Dover odds, picks, Playoffs predictions: Model says Denny Hamlin surprises at Drydene 400 – CBS Sports

2019 NASCAR at Dover odds, picks, Playoffs predictions: Model says Denny Hamlin surprises at Drydene 400 – CBS Sports
04 Oct

With the first leg of the 2019 NASCAR Playoffs in the books, just 12 drivers remain in the hunt for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup. Clint Bowyer was the last driver to make the cut from 16 to 12 after finishing fourth last week at the Charlotte Roval and eight the week prior at Richmond. This week the top circuit returns to Dover International Speedway for the 2019 Drydene 400, which begins on Sunday at 2:30 p.m. ET. Bowyer is a 30-1 long shot in the latest 2019 Drydene 400 odds. Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. are No. 1 and No. 2 in the standings and they’re installed as 4-1 co-favorites for this week’s race. Only seven races remain in the season so the action only figures to ratchet up in intensity going forward. So before you make any 2019 Drydene 400 picks, be sure to check out the NASCAR at Dover predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track history and recent results into account.

The model has crushed its NASCAR picks this year. It correctly predicted Martin Truex Jr.’s victory at the Toyota/Save Mart 350. It also called Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin a top-four contender from the start. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers at the Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano in its projected top five, and then hit nine of the top 10 drivers last week at the Go Bowling at The Glen. Additionally, it had Coca-Cola 600 winner Martin Truex Jr. in its top two and then nailed Kyle Busch’s huge win in the first race at Pocono. Anybody who has followed its picks is way up.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events at venues like Dover International Speedway are in his blood. Now, his model simulated NASCAR at Dover 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For NASCAR at Dover, we can tell you the model is high on Denny Hamlin, who makes a strong run at the checkered flag despite going off as a long shot at 12-1 odds. Hamlin sits in third in the standings and has won four times already this season. Hamlin finished second in the fall Dover race a season ago and has 11 top-10 finishes during his career at Dover, including five top 10s in the last seven trips to Delaware. He typically qualifies well at Dover too, with three poles and only starting outside the top 10 twice in his last 15 starts here.

And a massive shocker: Kyle Busch, one of the Vegas favorites at 4-1, fails to get the job done and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in a loaded lineup.

Busch broke his sway bar early last week at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course and wound up deciding not to come back out after a red flag with 10 laps to go. He wound up finishing 37th but is still tops in the standings after 29 races. Busch has now finished 19th or worse in three of his last four races, but is back in first place with points resetting for the Round of 12. And while Busch is a three-time winner at Dover, he’s also finished 16th or worse in five of his last 11 starts there.

The model is also targeting four other drivers with NASCAR at Dover odds of 12-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs this play could hit it big. You absolutely need to see who they are before locking in any NASCAR picks.

So who wins the 2019 Drydene 400 at Dover International Speedway? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2019 Drydene 400 leaderboard, all from the model that has crushed its NASCAR picks this season

Kyle Busch 4-1
Martin Truex Jr. 4-1
Kevin Harvick 6-1
Kyle Larson 6-1
Chase Elliott 7-1
Brad Keselowski 12-1
Denny Hamlin 12-1
Joey Logano 14-1
Erik Jones 20-1
Ryan Blaney 20-1
Clint Bowyer 30-1
Kurt Busch 30-1
Alex Bowman 30-1
William Byron 30-1
Jimmie Johnson 30-1
Daniel Suarez 80-1



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