Tuesday, 28 January 2020

2019 NASCAR at Talladega odds, picks, Playoffs predictions: Model says Chase Elliott surprises at 1000bulbs.com 500 – CBS Sports

2019 NASCAR at Talladega odds, picks, Playoffs predictions: Model says Chase Elliott surprises at 1000bulbs.com 500 – CBS Sports
12 Oct

There are only six races remaining in the 2019 NASCAR Playoffs and on Sunday the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series will return to Talladega Superspeedway. The 2.66-mile tri-oval is one of NASCAR’s fastest venues and with restrictor-plate rules bunching up fields, it’s got the unique possibility of shaking up the standings in a big way. Martin Truex Jr. is the current points leader and he’s listed at 6-1 in the latest 2019 1000Bulbs.com 500 odds, but it’s Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick who are installed as 9-2 co-favorites. Meanwhile, second-place Denny Hamlin is listed as an 18-1 long shot despite having won a restrictor-plate race to begin the season at the 2019 Daytona 500. But before you make any NASCAR at Talladega predictions, be sure to check out the 2019 1000bulbs.com 500 picks and projected leaderboard from the advanced computer model at SportsLine.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track history and recent results into account.

The model has crushed its NASCAR picks this year. It correctly predicted Martin Truex Jr.’s victory at the Toyota/Save Mart 350. It also called Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin a top-four contender from the start. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers at the Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano in its projected top five, and then hit nine of the top 10 drivers at the Go Bowling at The Glen. Additionally, it had Coca-Cola 600 winner Martin Truex Jr. in its top two and then nailed Kyle Busch’s huge win in the first race at Pocono. Anybody who has followed its picks is way up.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events at venues like Talladega Superspeedway are in his blood. Now, his model simulated NASCAR at Talladega 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For NASCAR at Talladega, we can tell you the model is high on Chase Elliott, who makes a strong run at the checkered flag despite going off as a long shot at 25-1 odds. Elliott has enjoyed his second consecutive three-win season but has dropped to No. 11 in the standings and has work to do to make the next cut from 12 drivers to eight after engine failure caused a 38th-place finish at Dover last week.

Luckily, Elliott has a proven restrictor-plate setup, winning the first race at Talladega Superspeedway this season after starting 11th. Elliott also has a third-place finish and a fifth-place finish at Talladega since joining the top circuit in 2016 and he could be a serious factor on Sunday with 25-1 NASCAR at Talladega odds.

And a massive shocker: Joey Logano, one of the Vegas favorites at 6-1, fails to get the job done and barely cracks the top 10. There are far better values in a loaded lineup. Logano has fallen all the way to ninth in the standings after leading for eight weeks earlier in the year.

He’s coming off a 34th-place finish at Dover and his last time out at a superspeedway saw him finish 25th at Daytona. And while Logano has three wins at Talladega, he also has eight finishes of 24th or worse at the famed venue and is a tough buy at 6-1 given his current form.

The model is also targeting three other drivers with NASCAR at Talladega odds of 18-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs this play could hit it big. You absolutely need to see who they are before locking in any NASCAR picks.

So who wins the 2019 1000bulbs.com 500 at Talladega Superspeedway? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2019 1000bulbs.com 500 leaderboard, all from the model that has crushed its NASCAR picks this season

Kyle Busch 9-2
Kevin Harvick 9-2
Brad Keselowski 6-1
Martin Truex Jr. 6-1
Kyle Larson 6-1
Joey Logano 6-1
Denny Hamlin 18-1
Ryan Blaney 18-1
Aric Almirola 18-1
Erik Jones 20-1
Kurt Busch 20-1
Chase Elliott 25-1
Clint Bowyer 25-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 50-1
Jimmie Johnson 50-1
Alex Bowman 50-1
Austin Dillon 80-1
Daniel Suarez 80-1

Source: https://www.cbssports.com/nascar/news/2019-nascar-at-talladega-odds-picks-playoffs-predictions-model-says-chase-elliott-surprises-at-1000bulbs-com-500/


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