Saturday, 18 January 2020

Consumers Energy 400 odds, picks 2019: Proven NASCAR model says Chase Elliott surprises at Michigan – CBS Sports

Consumers Energy 400 odds, picks 2019: Proven NASCAR model says Chase Elliott surprises at Michigan – CBS Sports
09 Aug

With just four races remaining before the start of the 2019 NASCAR Playoffs, the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series returns to Michigan on Sunday for the 2019 Consumers Energy 400. The green flag drops at 3 p.m. ET and the two-mile oval in southeastern Michigan is sure to provide plenty of excitement. Kyle Busch has moved into first place in the standings and he enters the week as the 9-2 favorite in the latest 2019 Consumers Energy 400 odds. However, Joey Logano (7-1) has been in first place for most of the season and he’ll be looking to take back the lead after winning at Michigan in June. Martin Truex Jr. and Kevin Harvick are listed at 5-1 while Brad Keselowski (7-1) rounds out the top five in NASCAR at Michigan odds. But before you make your 2019 Consumers Energy 400 picks, be sure to check out the NASCAR predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Developed by DFS pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track history and recent results into account.

The model is off to an extremely strong start in NASCAR this year. It correctly predicted Martin Truex Jr.’s victory at the Toyota/Save Mart 350. It also called Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin a top-four contender from the start. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers at the Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano in its projected top five, and then hit nine of the top 10 drivers last week at the Go Bowling at The Glen. Additionally, it had Coca-Cola 600 winner Martin Truex Jr. in its top two and then nailed Kyle Busch’s huge win in the first race at Pocono.

It also made some huge calls last year, including correctly projecting wins for Kyle Busch at Chicago and Martin Truex Jr. at Sonoma. It also nailed three of the top four finishers at Michigan and two of the top four at the Daytona 500. Anybody who has followed its picks is way up.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events at venues like Michigan International Speedway are in his blood. Now, his model simulated NASCAR at Michigan 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For NASCAR at Michigan, we can tell you the model is high on Chase Elliott, who makes a strong run at the checkered flag despite going off at 14-1 odds. Elliott won last week at Watkins Glen, giving him his fifth career victory in NASCAR’s top circuit. The 23-year-old is already working on his fourth consecutive top-10 finish in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series standings and he’s had a strong track record at Michigan.

Elliott has six top-10 finishes in Michigan in seven career starts, including runner-up finishes in each of his first three starts at this track in the Monster Energy Series. Elliott also finished second and sixth at Michigan in two starts there on the Xfinity Series. Elliott broke his run of bad form last week with his win and he’s poised to rise in the standings at a track he’s had success on.

And a massive shocker: Martin Truex Jr., one of the top Vegas favorites at 5-1, barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in a loaded lineup.

Truex is fifth in the standings entering this week and has four victories, but he’s been plagued by inconsistency this season. Truex has finished 17th or worse on seven occasions this year and he’s had 11 career finishes of 17th or worse in 27 career starts at Michigan. Just like last week, Truex finished second at Watkins Glen last year and he wound up following up that performance with a 14th-place finish at Michigan. So fade Truex in the second Michigan race of the season.

The model is also targeting four other drivers with NASCAR at Michigan odds of 14-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these long shots could hit it big. You absolutely need to see who they are before locking in any NASCAR picks.

So who wins the 2019 Consumers Energy 400? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2019 Consumers Energy 400 leaderboard, all from the model that has crushed its NASCAR picks this season

Kyle Busch 9-2
Martin Truex Jr. 5-1
Kevin Harvick 5-1
Joey Logano 7-1
Brad Keselowski 7-1
Denny Hamlin 14-1
Kyle Larson 14-1
Chase Elliott 14-1
Erik Jones 16-1
Clint Bowyer 20-1
Kurt Busch 20-1
Ryan Blaney 20-1
Alex Bowman 30-1
William Byron 30-1
Daniel Suarez 40-1
Aric Almirola 50-1
Jimmie Johnson 50-1



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