Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKingsâ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on the highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver.
(fppk = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary)
1. Martin Truex, Jr. ($11,600) â He won the spring race by a margin of nine seconds, but this dominance came with the assistance of apathetic lappers running out the string in stage three of a Monday race. While the margin of victory is of little significance, his ability to drive to the front from the back of the field proves that Truex had an amazing setup at Dover. (5.2 fppk)
2. Kyle Busch ($12,000) â Itâs inexplicable, but for some unknown reason, Kyle Busch struggles in the Dover spring races, but is exceptional in the fall races. This pattern repeats every year. This is not a matter of adjusting setups between races because many of his spring results are mechanical failures or wrecks. (5.5 fppk)
3. Kyle Larson ($9,700) â Just about everything that could go wrong, did do wrong for Larson at the beginning of 2019. In the race leading up to Dover, Larson survived a gnarly wreck at Talladega. At Dover, he turned his season around and ran inside the top 5 all day. (4.1 fppk)
4. Chase Elliott ($10,300) â From the pole, Elliott led 145 laps in the spring Dover race. Elliott could have led nearly every lap, if it wasnât for petulant lappers in Stage 1 and 2 that allowed the contenders to catch and pass Elliott. (4.5 fppk)
5. Alex Bowman ($8,000) â He drove from the back to the front because he had a great setup. That is a significant advantage. Dover was possibly the worst race in terms of dirty air this season, and Bowman was one of two cars on the track that could pass in the dirty air. (4.4 fppk)
6. Kevin Harvick ($11,100) â Last year, Harvick routinely had the best car. This year, he regularly has a top 5 car. He never has a car that can make passes inside the top 5. Itâs possible that eventually, the team figures this package out, but that has not happened yet. (4.3 fppk)
7. Brad Keselowski ($10,000) â The #2 car had short run speed, but struggled on the long run. The team made wholesale changes to the setup before the race, but the changes werenât successful and BK finished a lap down. (4.4 fppk)
8. Denny Hamlin ($10,700) â The #11 car was a disaster in the spring race. Hamlin and his team struggled through the first two stages, but they kept fighting and were in 10th place to start Stage 3. Unfortunately, the car had a mind of its own, and Hamlin wrecked early in Stage 3. (4.6 fppk)
9. Joey Logano ($9,500) â Before the end of Stage 1, Logano took two tires and was able to steal a Stage 1 win from Elliott. After the stage, Logano took four tires and dropped to the back of the field. It took the rest of the race for Logano to slog his way back into the top 10. (4.5 fppk)
10. Clint Bowyer ($8,600) â He was one of the more vociferous drivers on his radio during the spring Dover race. Bowyer was highly critical of the dirty air created by the high speeds and high spoilers at the high banked short track. (3.2 fppk)
11. Kurt Busch ($9,000) â Two premier cars started the spring Dover race in the back and drove through the field. Every other driver finished where they started. Kurt ran in the teens all day, and if he doesnât improve his qualifying position, then heâll likely repeat his spring performance. (3.9 fppk)
12. Aric Almirola ($7,500) â He nearly won the 2018 Dover fall race and the package isnât much different this year. Itâs different enough. Despite starting inside the top 10, Almriola slowly faded throughout the race and finished 16th. (3.5 fppk)
13. Daniel Suarez ($7,300) â Dover was one of the many races this season when Suarez was in the optimal lineup. It wasnât a spectacular race for Suarez; he started up front and didnât make any mistakes. It was impossible to pass, so Suarez earned a solid finish based on his starting position. (4.1 fppk)
14. William Byron ($8,400) â At the end of stage one in the spring race, Byron gambled. He took two tires and faded. For the rest of the race, Byron battled to get back into the top 10. His car was good enough for a top 5 finish, but that was ruined by a risky two tire call early in the race. (4.4 fppk)
15. Erik Jones ($8,800) â Now that Jones is eliminated from the playoffs, he can take chances and race for wins. Donât expect big moves this weekend because Dover is not a strategy race. Two drivers gambled with a two tire stops in the spring and their races were ruined. (3.9 fppk)
16. Jimmie Johnson ($7,800) â All four Hendrick cars were running inside the top 10 in Stage 3 of the spring race. On one hand, that is a win for the poorly performing veteran, on the other, itâs quite disappointing. A top 10 should be nothing for the 11 time Dover winner. (3.3 fppk)
17. Ryan Blaney ($9,200) â It looked like it would be a top 10 day for Blaney in the spring. He earned stage points in stage one and two. However, his team struggled with an unknown mechanical issue early in Stage 3, and Blaney finished in 15th (4.2 fppk)
18. Ryan Newman ($8,200) â It took about 15 cautions, a handful of incidents, a bad car with a poor starting position, and a missed chicane on the second to last lap to prevent Newman from his weekly top 15 finish. Itâs unlikely that everything possible goes wrong again this week. (4.9 fppk)
19. Chris Buescher ($7,100) â The JTG Daugherty cars completely missed with their setups in the spring race. Before the race, the team scrambled and went heavy in the direction of mechanical grip, but it did not work. Buescher could struggle again, but this is the cheapest that heâs been in months. (4.5 fppk)
20. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,300) â In the opening laps of the spring Dover race, Stenhouse sliced his way through the field from 20th to 12th. Stenhouse had a fast car in practice and a top 10 was achievable, if he kept his car clean. He failed to keep his car clean, but in his defense, his wreck was due to a mechanical failure. (2.6 fppk)
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