Tuesday, 21 January 2020

Food City 500 at Bristol: 2019 NASCAR® Fantasy Driver Rankings – DraftKings Playbook

Food City 500 at Bristol: 2019 NASCAR® Fantasy Driver Rankings – DraftKings Playbook
22 Dec


WATCH: NASCAR Price Check — Food City 500

Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for Sunday’s Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway. The ordering is not based on highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver.

(fppk = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary.)

1 Kyle Busch $12,900
2 Ryan Blaney $10,300
3 Kyle Larson $9,500
4 Chase Elliott $8,900
5 Martin Truex, Jr. $9,800

1. Kyle Busch ($12,900) – Last fall at Bristol, Busch’s day was ruined after a pileup wreck on Lap 1. On Day 2 of the spring race, the weather allowed for long runs. Busch was the best driver running the bottom groove on long runs and won the race. (7.2 fppk)

2. Ryan Blaney ($10,300) – In 2017, Blaney was solid at the short tracks, but he could not put together complete races. Last year, he was beyond solid at Bristol. He led 100 laps in the spring and 126 in the fall, but a lapper took him out in the spring, and he settled for a seventh-place finish in the fall. (4.4 fppk)

3. Kyle Larson ($9,500) – There is one man who can usurp Kyle Busch’s reign as the king of Bristol, and it’s Larson. There is just one catch, and that’s the 2019 rules package. So far, the high downforce package has been a thorn in Larson’s side, and it likely will continue this weekend. (4.3 fppk)

4. Chase Elliott ($8,900) – Momentum is on Elliott’s side. He scored the second most hog points (fast lap and laps led points) at Martinsville, and then the fourth most at a completely different track type in Texas. Elliott led 112 laps at Bristol last fall. (4.9 fppk)

5. Martin Truex, Jr. ($9,800) – It appeared that the No. 19 car was the second fastest car to start the season. However, at Martinsville, Truex’s speed disappeared. That could be a matter of the strong aero disadvantage birthed by the new racing package, but if that’s the case, that disadvantage will be in full effect this weekend at Bristol. (4.4 fppk)

6 Clint Bowyer $8,600
7 Kevin Harvick $11,600
8 Joey Logano $11,100
9 Denny Hamlin $9,200
10 Kurt Busch $10,700

6. Clint Bowyer ($8,600) – He has raced well at the short tracks in the new package. At Phoenix, Bowyer was on his way to a top-five day, but a misguided pit stop mired his car in traffic late in the race. At Martinsville, he finished seventh. (4.0 fppk)

7. Kevin Harvick ($11,600) – All season long, the stats have confirmed Harvick’s speed, but he has nothing to show for it. Last week was Harvick’s worst race of the season, and the stats bear that out. Harvick was 13th fastest on green flag runs and 20th on restarts. (4.2 fppk)

8. Joey Logano ($11,100) – The past two weeks have been rough for Logano, but Bristol should be a good bounce-back race. Busch and Larson are the current kings of The Colosseum, but Logano is the next in line with an average of 24 hog points per race over the past seven races. (4.0 fppk)

9. Denny Hamlin ($9,200) – As predicted in previous rankings articles, Hamlin was on the verge of a big fantasy NASCAR performance. His car has been strong all season, but he was never in a position to score points. That changed with his win at Texas last week. (5.0 fppk)

10. Kurt Busch ($10,700) – Sometimes wins unfairly slip through a driver’s fingers, and sometimes they get wins they don’t deserve. Last year, four drivers led six times as many laps as Kurt Busch, but Kurt led the one lap that mattered. (5.4 fppk)

11 Brad Keselowski $12,200
12 Erik Jones $7,800
13 Aric Almirola $8,300
14 Ryan Newman $7,000
15 Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. $7,600

11. Brad Keselowski ($12,200) – In the fall race, Keselowski was the lucky dog twice in Stage No. 3. That’s an accurate reflection of a driver with an average finish of 26th at Bristol over his past six races. (6.1 fppk)

12. Erik Jones ($7,800) – In the fall 2017 race, Jones finished second and scored 136 points from the pole. Last fall, Jones scored the sixth most fantasy points at Bristol. He is due for a good spring race. (4.1 fppk)

13. Aric Almirola ($8,300) – Bristol is not one of Almirola’s standout tracks; it’s just another track. He has 12 top-10s in 54 races. Two weeks ago, Almirola started on the front row at Martinsville and did absolutely nothing with the premium track position. (4.5 fppk)

14. Ryan Newman ($7,000) – Bristol is great race track to be a jerk. Drivers can’t block at the intermediate tracks with speeds around 180 mph. At Bristol, drivers safely can block. Newman has a top-15 finish in eight of the past 10 Bristol races. (4.1 fppk)

15. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($7,600) – If you’ve read a Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. fantasy NASCAR blurb over the past five years for the Bristol race, you have read there are two tracks where Stenhouse doesn’t wreck. Play Stenhouse at Talladega and Bristol. (3.6 fppk)

16 Daniel Suarez $7,300
17 William Byron $6,800
18 Jimmie Johnson $8,000
19 Austin Dillon $7,200
20 David Ragan $5,600

16. Daniel Suarez ($7,300) – For the first time ever, Suarez feels like he is a part of a team. He and his SHR teammates went bowling two weeks ago. If Joe Gibbs Racing only knew it took one bowling outing to get this guy to race well. If his SHR teammates go to the movies, watch out — championship! (4.3 fppk)

17. William Byron ($6,800) – Jimmie Johnson won at Dover 11 times and Bristol two times. He won at Charlotte and Texas a combined 14 times. Many believe the setups for these tracks are similar. That means Chad Knaus, Johnson’s old crew chief and Byron’s new crew chief, has built a winning setup 27 times. (4.3 fppk)

18. Jimmie Johnson ($8,000) – As Johnson’s skills have declined, he still has remained a dominant force at the high bank, concrete, short tracks. Johnson’s past two wins were at Dover and Bristol. (3.5 fppk)

19. Austin Dillon ($7,200) – If nothing happens, Dillon is a 15th-place driver, give or take a few spots. If he catches a minor bad break, then he’s a 15th-to-20th-place driver. If misfortune visits other well funded drivers, he can sneak into the top 10. It does not need to be any more scientific than that. (3.6 fppk)

20. David Ragan ($5,600) – His worst finish in the past five Bristol races is 23rd. He’s finished 17th, 12th, 17th, 23rd and 21st in the past five races at Bristol. He’s been way too consistent for his Bristol finishes to be deemed a fluke. (2.8 fppk)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.

Source: https://www.draftkings.com/playbook/nas/food-city-500-bristol-2019-nascar-fantasy-driver-rankings


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