Monday, 27 January 2020

GEICO 500 at Talladega: 2019 NASCAR® FANTASY DRIVER RANKINGS – DraftKings Playbook

GEICO 500 at Talladega: 2019 NASCAR® FANTASY DRIVER RANKINGS – DraftKings Playbook
14 Oct

WATCH: NASCAR Price Check — GEICO 500
Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for Sunday’s race in Lincoln, Alabama. The ordering is not based on the highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver.

(fppk = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary.)

Rank Driver Salary
1. Joey Logano $11,200
2. Denny Hamlin $9,200
3. Clint Bowyer $8,900
4. Kyle Busch $12,000
5. Aric Almirola $8,100

1. Joey Logano ($11,200) – Keselowski’s cold streak at plate tracks is dangerously close to transforming into the yips. That leaves Logano and Hamlin as the top plate racers in NASCAR. Logano has won at Talladega in three of the last four years. (5.0 fppk)

2. Denny Hamlin ($9,200) – The rub against Hamlin was that he was a great plate track finisher, but not a plate track winner. That’s no longer the case. His three plate wins since 2014 are tied for the second-most wins at the plate tracks. (4.6 fppk)

3. Clint Bowyer ($8,900) – He’s a good plate racer in a good plate car surrounded by a strong team. With that being said, that was the same story at Daytona, but he finished 20th. He ran inside the top 10 all day at Daytona, but he was collected on the final wreck of the race. (4.7 fppk)

4. Kyle Busch ($12,000) – Daytona was an early sign that 2019 was Rowdy’s year. Kyle has wrecked in seven of the last 10 plate races, but not at Daytona. He avoided all eight wrecks and finished 2nd. (7.2 fppk)

5. Aric Almirola ($8,100) – He won a rain-shorted Daytona summer race with Richard Petty Motorsports. In his first race with Stewart-Haas Racing, he was dumped by Austin Dillon while leading the final lap. He rebounded and won last fall’s Talladega race with some help from conspicuous NASCAR officiating. (3.6 fppk)

6. Brad Keselowski $10,700
7. Kurt Busch $9000,
8. Kevin Harvick $11600,
9. Ryan Newman $7800,
10. Ryan Blaney $9,800

6. Brad Keselowski ($10,700) – Over that last 21 plate races (2014 to present), Keselowski ranks as the 17th-best plate driver based on average finish, but he leads NASCAR with 4 wins over that span. How is that possible? He’s wrecked in 7 of the last 10 plate races. (5.7 fppk)

7. Kurt Busch ($9,000) – Talladega and Daytona are slightly different, and this difference is sometimes used to explain driver performance. Since 2017, Kurt’s average finish at Talladega is 12th, but at Daytona, it is 23rd (that includes a 2017 Daytona 500 win). Be careful with the numbers this week. (5.3 fppk)

8. Kevin Harvick ($11,600) – Up until 2017, Harvick was the most consistent top-15 finisher at plate tracks. Since 2017, Harvick has one top-15 finish in the nine plate track races. (4.6 fppk)

9. Ryan Newman ($7,800) – Over the last 21 plate races (2014 to present), Newman ranks as the fourth-best plate racer in terms of average finish. Either Newman is incredibly lucky, which seems unlikely given his career arc, or he has mastered the skill of plate racing. (4.6 fppk)

10. Ryan Blaney ($9,800) – He checks the boxes when it comes to having the right car and the right teammates. It’s hard to do better than Team Penske. Blaney’s problem is much like other drivers’, his track history is abysmal. Blaney has two top-10 finishes in his last 10 plate races. (4.6 fppk)

11. Martin Truex, Jr. $10,100
12. Paul Menard $6,700
13. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. $7,400
14. Erik Jones $8,700
15. Chase Elliott $9,500

11. Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,100)DFS players are faced with difficult decisions this week. Truex will be flanked by a strong fleet of JGR cars that finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd at Daytona, but Truex has not earned a top 20 in his last five Talladega races. (5.3 fppk)

12. Paul Menard ($6,700) – He’s wrecked in three of his last four plates races, but even with those ugly finishes, Menard still ranks as the 10th-best plate racer since 2014. Menard also has the added benefit of hooking up with fast Fords and the Penske alliance. (3.8 fppk)

13. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($7,400) – Talladega was the site of Stenhouse’s first career win. He followed that win with another victory at Daytona two months later. Stenhouse has the ability to win, although a top 10 is more likely. However, the most likely outcome is that he wrecks multiple times this weekend. (3.2 fppk)

14. Erik Jones ($8,700) – The trend in the last two plate races has been for teams to stick together. At Talladega last fall, SHR ran 1, 2, 3 and 4 for most of the race. At Daytona in February, JGR swept the podium. It might be wise to ignore names and focus on teams this weekend. (4.2 fppk)

15. Chase Elliott ($9,500) – The Hendrick cars qualify well and look competitive all weekend at the plate track events. However, over the course of 500 miles, it never works out. The most glaring weakness is inexperience. The veteran on the team, Jimmie Johnson, is quite possibly one of the worst plate racers in history. (4.8 fppk)

16. Austin Dillon $7,600
17. Kyle Larson $8,500
18. Ty Dillon $6,500
19. Bubba Wallace $6,000
20. Jimmie Johnson $8,300

16. Austin Dillon ($7,600) – In the plate racing rankings, Austin Dillon ranks just below Ryan Newman and Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. The fact that Newman, Stenhouse, and Dillon average the best finishes tells DFS players everything they need to know about plate racing. (4.0 fppk)

17. Kyle Larson ($8,500) – At Talladega and Daytona, luck is more important than speed or experience. No driver has had worse luck than Kyle Larson this season. He has been the personification of Murphy’s Law. (3.5 fppk)

18. Ty Dillon ($6,500) – Slow and steady wins the race. Ty Dillon’s Cup career has eerily mirrored the parable of the Tortoise and the Hare. Nowhere is this more evident than at Talladega. Ty has finished 15th, 15th, 11th and 13th. Talladega is a track where Ty can actually win, but yet he plays it safe and earns solid, but unremarkable top-15 finishes each race. (4.5 fppk)

19. Bubba Wallace ($6,000) – He was due for a plate race wreck, and that’s what happened at the Daytona 500. Before that race, Bubba had a streak of five top-20 finishes to begin his Cup plate racing career. (2.5 fppk)

20. Jimmie Johnson ($8,300) – Calling Johnson the worst plate racer in history is hyperbole, but it seems that every Daytona speedweek, Johnson wrecks multiple cars. In the last 21 plate races, he has seven top 10s. His stats are not inspiring, but the plate tracks are likely Johnson’s best chance to secure a win this season. (4.0 fppk)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.



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