Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKingsâ NASCAR salaries for Sundayâs Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway. The ordering is not based on the highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver.
(fppk = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary.)
1. Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,800) â Las Vegas and Kansas are not the same, but theyâre similar enough in this package. These two tracks are wide and steeply banked near the wall. This creates a specific type of racing in this package, and Truex won at Las Vegas a couple weeks ago. (5.1 fppk)
2. Kevin Harvick ($11,000) â Donât bet on Harvick to win, but he likely will score hog points (fast laps and laps led points). Harvick has been a top hog in all of the low-horsepower races at wide intermediate tracks (Las Vegas, Kansas and Chicago). (4.3 fppk)
3. Brad Keselowski ($9,600) â In classic Keselowski style, he did not have the best car at the beginning of the race, but he did at the end of the race. His crew chief, Paul Wolfe, is one the best in-race adjusters in NASCAR and is a big reason for BKâs win at Kansas in the spring. (4.3 fppk)
4. Kyle Busch ($11,400) â As good as Kyle Busch has been this year, he hasnât been that good. He has not won since late May, and he has not won at a 1.5-mile intermediate track in the new low-horsepower package. (5.4 fppk)
5. Alex Bowman ($8,600) â At the wide tracks where drivers can overcome the wake of dirty air created by the 17-foot spoilers, Bowman has been the best driver in NASCAR. In the first Kansas race, both Dover races and the Chicago race, Bowman worked both lanes to get up front. (4.3 fppk)
6. Kyle Larson ($9,400) â In the old package, Kansas was one of Larsonâs best tracks. In the spring, Larson was just another top car in the new low-horsepower package. His team has made gains, and he nearly won in the low-horsepower package at Chicago. (4.1 fppk)
7. Joey Logano ($9,800) â After failing inspection, Logano easily made his way towards the top 10. Unfortunately, he suffered damage on a restart, and at the wide aero dependent intermediate tracks, that was game over. (4.3 fppk)
8. Chase Elliott ($10,100) â Perfectly timed cautions, pit strategy and decent restarts allowed Elliott to jump from the back of the field to the front rather quickly in the spring race. In clean air, Elliott had a race-winning car. (4.2 fppk)
9. Denny Hamlin ($10,500) â All of the JGR cars unloaded slow in the first Kansas race. They proceeded to be slow all weekend. Practice speeds will be very important for the JGR cars this weekend. (4.9 fppk)
10. Kurt Busch ($9,000) â In two of the past three intermediate track races, Kurt earned more than 25 hog points. Thatâs impressive but not helpful because those races were at uniquely shaped outlier intermediate tracks (Kentucky and Darlington). (3.8 fppk)
11. Clint Bowyer ($8,800) â Itâs win or bust for Bowyer, so itâs likely bust. Bowyer has not won at a 1.5-mile track race in years, but that doesnât mean heâs not in play. Positive place differential and a top-10 are possibilities, but heâs more of a contrarian play . (3.2 fppk)
12. William Byron ($8,200) â It looks like his playoffs are coming to an end. Talladega will do that. Byron needs to win this weekend, but his car is not the fastest and heâs not the best driver. (4.2 fppk)
13. Ryan Newman ($7,300) â The first Kansas race was one of Newmanâs worst races of the season, but thatâs merely from the standpoint of finishing position. Newman had a top-15 car, but an uncontrolled tire on a green flag pit stop ruined his race. (4.9 fppk)
14. Erik Jones ($8,400) â Despite JGRâs struggles at Kansas, Jones was in a position to battle for the win at the end of the race. Much of this had to do with late-race cautions, but Jones was fast enough to be in a place to benefit. (3.7 fppk)
15. Chris Buescher ($6,700) â Does this racing package suit Buescher? No one knows. Does this package suit the JTG Daughtery engineers? No one knows. An explanation of Buescherâs solid season has never been given, but whatâs that matter? Heâs been great in the high-downforce package. (4.1 fppk)
16. Ryan Blaney ($9,200) â Up until May, Blaney averaged 25 hog points per race. Since then, heâs averaged 5 hog points per season. Blaney has a top-10 car, but heâs not going to spend much time out front. (4.1 fppk)
17. Aric Almirola ($7,800) â Talladega was Almirolaâs first top-10 finish since the Daytona summer race. Thatâs a bad look. Almriolaâs only top-10 finishes in the past four months were plate races. Thatâs a Ricky Stenhouse stat. (3.5 fppk)
18. Jimmie Johnson ($8,000) â Dover is over. Itâs his best track and it makes sense Johnson ran well at Dover and not anywhere else this season. Kansas is anywhere else just like Talladega was last week, and that anywhere else race ended up in a DNF. (3.3 fppk)
19. Daniel Suarez ($7,500) â Heâs nothing more than a slightly better version of Danica Patrick. An average stock car driver that earns average results in very good equipment. When he runs a clean race, heâs anywhere from a seventh- to 15th-place driver. (4.0 fppk)
20. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($7,000) â This is a Stenhouse race track, if he unloads with a decent car. The wide track plays to one of Stenhouseâs few skills â working multiple grooves. While most drivers seem wedded to the bottom, Stenhouse can find clean air running a higher line. (2.8 fppk)
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